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Market Comment Begin’g – 10 Dec 2012


[Editor Remark: A Gold Report by Bill Wermine]

Dear Investors,

Below is an account by James Rickards from his last chapter of his book Currency Wars: It applies now.

In 1984, off the Southern Coast of Turkey near Uluburan lies one of of the most important archeology discoveries. In 1300 BC a cargo ship sunk with its full cargo scattered on the ocean floor. A sponge diver discovered it and reported it to the authorities. Expert archeology divers found a composite of trade, culture, and economy of interconnectedness of multiple civilizations in the late bronze age. They found a degree of financial complexity 3300 years ago that would be familiar to London and New York bankers today.

Cargo included 10 tons of copper, one ton of tin to make bronze weapons. They also found ebony, ivory, gold, silver, blue glass ingots, and amber. Foodstuffs included olive oil, grapes and a gold scarab inscribed with the name of Egyptian Queen Nefertiti.

Archeologists were impressed with the diversity of the cargo’s sources. Copper was from Cyprus, tin from Turkey, amber from the Baltic sea 2000 miles away. foodstuffs from Syria and Israel .

This was the ancient version of a global trading system.

The trading network even stretched to Sudan and to the East of Spain to the West- an area of over 16 million square miles.

The wealth, sophistication and interconnectedness of this trading network is difficult to comprehend, even today.

Then it suddenly collapsed. The Bronze age civilization in 1200 BC collapsed in less than 50 years. Multiple kingdoms and empires crumbled.

There is some resemblance of the Bronze age collapse and the collapse of the Roman empire and subsequent dark ages.

What this shows is that civilizations are not linear but are cyclical. We do not continually get richer, smarter and more sophisticated and more complex. Occasionally things come apart.

It is impossible to know when a civilization will collapse. Just like an avalanche, the disaster happens without warning and suddenly.

The common thread is :Civilization complexity is the cause of its own collapse. This is because of the demands of the elites for more imputs to maintain their privileged positions in a stratified society. Today that means energy and money. In the past it was slavery, forced labor and the spoils of war.

When money becomes scarce we print more or seek substitutes such as derivatives.

Bottom line: Unless we take steps to reduce the scale of today’s capital markets by breaking up the banks we face a catastrophic collapse on par with the Bronze age or Ancient Rome.

Here is commentary about currency wars taking place right now from David MacAlvaney a gold dealer from Colorado: This will benefit our dividend stocks and precious metals for the next few weeks/months.

It’s worth mentioning that these thoughts continue to be shared in earnest by other central banks around the world. This week we witnessed at least three central banks intervening in markets to “arrest” chronic economic weaknesses. Specifically, they were the banks of Brazil, Australia, and China (Hong Kong).
Japanese elections, due Dec 16th, will also be telling. The favored opposition party has been openly critical of incumbent leadership, and has vowed radical steps to eradicate the deflation that has plagued the nation for over two decades.

These are obviously negative developments for economies in the long-run, but they are very constructive for inflation-protected assets. For now, though, markets remain in a listless pattern until all elements in the equation reach exaggerated proportions – as we believe they will.

Gold will shield us from disaster. Last week the Korea Central Bank bought 26 tons of physical gold. They bought in the face of a precious metals sell call by Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs said interest rates will go up world wide and gold should be sold. This caused gold to drop 50 USD per ounce. Goldman Sachs represents the interests of the elites. Goldman will do all in its power to drive the price lower so that its insider elite clients can buy cheap.

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