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Market Comment Begin’g 31 Dec 2012


Dear Investors,

We are holding our first traders/investor club meeting for Year 2013 at our office in Jupiter Securities in KL.
We have prepared a presentation for all including “D.N.A. for Above Average Returns in KLSE”

Time: 10 am – 12.00 pm
Venue: Level 9, Menara Olympia.
Date: Jan 5, 2013, Saturday.

This invitation is strictly for Premium members and invited guests/Lite Members.

If Lite Members wish to attend, please contact Martin. Email him.

We will showcase our Magic Number Scanner (DNA of market) which can quickly identify high odds trading/investing shares in the KLSE/SGX. This is objective and dynamic based on 5 fundamental filters. If you combine with your knowledge of price and volume/ risk management you have an edge over the majority of players.

I will present a KLSE market outlook for 2013 including the topic of – which sectors to allocate capital .

There is an underlying fundamental which is driving all markets and that is that all central banks including the ECB, the Fed, the Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Bank of China have all rolled out nuclear QE and are flooding the world with inflation-fueling liquidity. They are deep into unfamiliar territory, so deep into experimental mode with QE that nobody knows what the consequence will be. They have slashed interest rates to near zero-percent, engaged in currency wars and are pumping massive liquidity into the economies with such force that they actually want to drive up inflation rates above target.

We are in the middle of a huge financial experiment conducted by many of those who created today’s uncomfortable situation. A cursory thought is sufficient to appreciate that it could well end in disaster and that is why over the last few years, we have recommended holding some gold/ gold shares as an insurance policy.

We are in the midst of an 82 week correction in gold/ silver and some of you have canceled your gold insurance policy because your financial house has not burned down and you have not made money. Since 2005 there have been 2 similar corrections- the 71 week correction in 2005- 2006 when resolved pushed gold from USD 667 to USD 993 and the 77 week correction from 2007-2009 from which gold broke out and rose to USD 1810. When our current correction ends where might gold rise to ?

Our Gold position reminds me once again of the great quote from Jesse Livermore:

“And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets.

I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.”

My forecast for 2013 is that stocks will rise due to the flood of money printing. However; we must focus on only the highest quality established companies that pay dividends. We must also avoid companies with high levels of debt. This will allow the business to sail on through troubled times and there will be trouble and volatility in 2013. The dividends will at least give us income to protect our downside. We recently picked up Raffles Medical Center for our Global Wrap accounts. They have low debt, high profit margins and a trend of rising ROE as well as ROA. As Singaporeans get richer they can afford quality medical care. A lot of rich Indonesians also are patients of Raffles Medical Center. I like simple well managed businesses that have an economic moat and this share fits the bill. By the way we picked this from our magic scanner.

Happy New Year

Here is the Premium Section. {+}

1. Expect extreme volatility in commodities in 2013. Learn to trade trends, reversals, and VSA patterns. Do not attempt to forecast. Focus on risk management. Markets are dominated by High Frequency Traders who can push markets to levels that create fear, panic and euphoria and then they reverse. Failing to manage risk can quickly wipe out an account.

2. Just using support/ resistance and VSA can give you an edge on gold/ silver/ CPO/ CI/ copper trading. Wait for extremes in the market and go the other way. Buy fear and sell greed. Presently, for futures traders I would stay out and wait to see how the fiscal cliff is resolved in the US before making a commitment.

3. Notice the chart of the CRB Index which is an index off all major world commodities. Notice the cluster of closes at the right edge of the chart. I am not recommending you make this trade as this is for educational purposes only.

– Bill –

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